The acceleration of the rise in prices in this last measure of the year haunts the ghosts of a mammoth public spending at the beginning of the next one due to the revaluations of benefits of the beneficiaries and salary updates of workers of the State administrations.
In this second plane, in addition, the advance of the CPI for the whole of the year, would provoke, facing the coming year, a strong inequality between the increase in public salaries and that of workers in the private sector. Specifically, the difference would be 25 euros per month with an increase of 76 euros per month for the administrations and 51 euros per month in the entire productive fabric, according to the estimates of the experts.
Specifically, these figures are extracted on the one hand from the inflation forecast for the year as a whole, after the confirmation yesterday by the INE of the data for the month of August, which shows a CPI of 3.3% , and which would be at line with an average increase in the year as a whole of 2.8% according to Funcas experts. And for another of the salary advances planned for next 2022 both in the public administrations of the State and in private sector companies.
In this way, the update of public salaries would be in line with this 2.8% inflation advance, as the coalition government has been doing. While general salaries in Spain will rise an average of 2.5% in 2022 , three tenths above the average increase this year, according to a study on salary increases carried out by the consultancy Willis Towers Watson.
In this way, the annual gross salary of employees would be – with data from the INE salary structure survey – at 2,112 euros per month on average for 2,815 euros in the public sector for next year, in both cases without applying the withholdings and social contributions that payroll assumes regularly.
Furthermore, the consulting firm points out, companies in the construction, real estate and engineering sectors will be the ones that will increase their salary budgets the most next year, 3.3%, while those that will present the lowest increases will be those of the banking sector (1 , 8% on average) and leisure and hospitality (1.9%). The report also reveals that 97.2% of the Spanish companies surveyed for this study will carry out salary reviews in 2022, compared to 61% this year.
However, the strong rise in prices that Spain is experiencing in these months, driven by the historical rise in energy prices, as a whole implies a financial rope for all administrations, since there are numerous concepts subject to revision with inflation, such as pensions. Thus, the cost for next year of the salary increase for civil servants for the State coffers would be close to 4,500 million euros -the 2% increase in 2020 has already added 3,200 million to the annual bill-.
The weight of electricity
In this sense, it seems that the weight of higher energy prices on the IPC mix will continue to affect the valuation of the shopping basket between now and the end of the year. Funcas estimates that the CPI, whose interannual rate stood at 3.3% in August, could exceed 4% in the next two months and then fall again to 3.9% in the last month of the year. five tenths above its previous forecast.
“These figures have been calculated based on the stability of the cost of oil and the fact that the price of electricity will drop by 15% in the two following months after the measures announced by the Government,” says the Foundation.
In this central scenario, the average annual inflation rate will be 2.7%, compared to the 2.5% previously predicted by Funcas. For 2022, it estimates an average inflation of 2.2%, which would stand at 1.4% in December. If the price of electricity did not fall and remained stable, like oil, Funcas estimates that the year-on-year rate for December would be 4.5%, with an annual average of 2.8% . By 2022, these rates would be 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively. “Electricity is the most volatile and determining component of the fluctuations of the CPI”, points out Raymond Torres, director of Coyuntura de Funcas.
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